Normally seasonal flu starts in October and November. Spreading increases exponentially throughout December and January which explains why case reports spike up through late March and die out with recovery by April. This is due to “herd immunity” forming and people staying home to avoid spreading it any further. Perhaps numbers in California are lower than expected (or at least lower than NY) due to most of us contracting this thing in December and getting over it before the media hyped it into oblivion.
Isn’t it amazing how the stock market bottomed in March, just as we were beginning to shut down the country? It’s “as if” the market knows ahead of time, and is “in tune” with nature, regardless of our stupidity.
Is the market hinting we have done something dumb and will pay the price again, or is something else on the horizon?
Unfortunately, government has decided to intervene with nature, and to boot, was late. By locking nearly everyone up in late March, not nearly enough of us have been exposed to build immunity. Another spike in cases is likely in late June or July. Surely it will be blamed on opening up too early. Who knows how the media will spin this, and who knows how many people will be dumb enough to believe it, but a second wave in flu cases is the norm and we may have made things worse by screwing with nature.
While many folks are gung-ho on waiting for a cure or vaccine, keep in mind, we have NEVER had an effective vaccine against flu strains. We have a vaccine for Swine flu, yet it accounts for 50% of flus reported in the US over the last ten years.
Susceptible people should have remained home (and still should). The global economy should have NEVER have been shut down. I pointed out in my last post how large numbers of people should have been dropping dead in LA (based on what so-called scientists and media will have you believe) yet this hasn’t been the case. I was in Venice multiple times to witness encampments growing in size and proximity while everyone else was under lockdown. I was there to witness what it looked like with the blending of visitors this weekend, so I know damn well these people are alive and kicking, now with stronger immunity to COVID than the rest of the population who was forced to stay home. Are the visitors with no immunity going to contract it by spending the day (or weekend) at a potential ground-zero location? Who knows.
Had we allowed nature to take its course and leave the economy open, would that have averted a market crash in February?
Absolutely not. In fact, the crash occurred before we shut the economy down and started to recover when restrictions got heavier, with the exception of travel bans and other announcements which were made early on.
This crash was predicted before the virus was even a blip on the radar. The virus simply provided a nice “cover excuse” for the inevitable. In 2008, folks wanted answers. Now, they aren’t even asking questions. The underlying reasons for the crash and fact that we seem to have events causing the market to come down when it reaches lofty valuations has not changed one iota.
The one thing government cannot change (although they try, and do effect timing to some degree) is the inevitable path markets will take. We have seen both the drop and (partial) recovery take place. What’s left is another correction to retest lows (although some stocks and indices like Nasdaq) may not see new lows, the next correction is coming again before a final wave to new all-time highs.
Could this be blamed on a second wave of corona virus cases?
Will folks controlling the news try and raise the “fear factor” and blame it on us for not following their orders?
Who knows, but inciting fear and letting stupidity run rampant has worked for them thus far.
Introducing the “magic” of photography.
Here is a photo by ABC news of the Venice Beach Boardwalk over Memorial Day Weekend. It does not seem like any “foul play” (ie — using older photos to represent a current situation) is at hand here, since the digital signs with the face mask warning were obviously not around before this pandemic and I know perfectly well what the Boardwalk looks like, now and months prior.
Yet on the ground (where everyone actually is, including me) it did not “look” like the photos shown on the news. In fact, I could easily tell people were more than six feet apart just by the seam lines in the concrete. I have photos (and was at) the same exact location depicted in the news. Closer shots reveal people spaced out appropriately, but if I hold the camera “up high” and point it down, zooming in further down (or moving further back to zoom the same location I was at) the effect is clearly visible.
Here are the same areas (same time and place) photographed at eye level. Notice how when the ground is shown, you can clearly see people are not crammed next to each other. Notice how people further out appear closer together, yet if I walked in either direction and observed (I did) crowd density is about the same. It was a bit lower at the North end of The Boardwalk.
Photos taken from a distance (especially with zoom lenses) will appear to make people seem closer than they actually are. In fact, it was quite civil here considering what usually goes on. Perhaps the overwhelming police force presence compelled crowds to act reasonably. Many were not wearing masks (another story) but overall kept distancing guidelines. The absurdity of being forced to remain in motion at the beach was ignored. Even the police exercised common sense and did not bother with folks sitting in the sand, so long as they weren’t doing anything stupid (I did witness a few tickets where presence of alcohol was obvious, but that has never been permitted on CA beaches).
The economic damage caused (and perhaps intentional) by government is irreparable to the majority of small businesses and individuals. If you have noticed, government only “allowed” BIG corporations to remain open. For some odd reason, liquor stores and pot shops were deemed “essential”. Essential perhaps to the state, where higher than usual taxes are collected on these items. Home improvement stores saw a big boom in business and long lines as people who were stuck at home with nothing to do decided to take on a few projects. Myself included. Under quarantine I managed to rebuild my carport with shelving and build a deck, projects I’ve put off for quite some time. Surely others were thinking the same.
Where is the logic – why weren’t small businesses (who can easily implement the same prevention strategies as larger ones) allowed open? How is swimming in the ocean in New York not permitted because the virus will spread, whereas swimming in the ocean in California allowed? And in these same two states, why is sitting on the sand okay in NY but not in California?
How does the virus know to stay contained within county lines? IE: Why has Los Angeles been shut down whereas surrounding counties like Orange County, Ventura, San Diego, and Santa Barbara less restricted? Did our officials not foresee an issue where people in restricted counties would overflow to surrounding less restricted areas?
So many more questions to think about, like “How does the virus attack democratic states more ferociously than republican states?” And one can’t use population as an excuse/answer since not only is Florida highly populated, but also highly populated with the most susceptible people, elderly. Yet, their numbers, both overall and taken on a per million basis are lower than NY or CA.
Aside from possible manipulation of numbers, do you think forcing nursing homes in NY (where susceptible, elderly people reside) to accept COVID infected people was a good idea?
“How is the county in which Gretchen Whitmer has a vacation home less susceptible to bordering counties in the state with higher restrictions”?
Do not get my started on the (dumb and senseless) politics here in California. On some level, I was hoping for the state NOT to reopen (with a cessation in federal funding as well). Insanity here has peaked before this virus and perhaps the best alternative is to simply let it crash, burn and crumble to the ground so things can be rebuilt properly with common sense. Fewer obstacles to doing business here, real estate returning to normal values, rentals within reason, and most important of all, lower taxes on everything (property, income, fuel, etc…). Unfortunately, the insanity is likely to resume and peak again with the rest of the market and country before a total collapse begins in less than three years.
Obviously science has been manipulated, and even ignored (assuming what is presented to us is true) but people are starting to realize the shutdown was unnecessary. Politics seems to have more of an influence than common sense and real science (the stuff we learned in biology way back when, and proper historical analysis). Just as corruption was present at the top of The Roman Empire (and many other historical tops) it has been present all along here too. After the final downfall, history is likely to show (depending on who writes it) the same to be true now, only world-wide.
Perhaps the cause of the next wave down in the market is a total surprise. Back in 2019, I had no idea the 2020 drop would be blamed on (note, blamed on not caused by) a virus. War and Pandemics are things we usually see at the bottom of a market (like HIV, Swine Flu, etc…) not tops. It would appear the economic ramifications of the shutdown have already been built in, unless we see some drastic earnings surprises. Once again (like 2019) cause is unknown.
I can say this (although the scenario is unlikely based on timing):
Should all of the indices see new all-time highs prior to the election, Trump may lose, resulting in a decrease in economic confidence, crashing the market. Both timing and wave patterns at this time suggest quite the opposite – Another drop coming with lows around election time, then a rise to new highs culminating while he is serving a second term. And don’t get me started on “new election models” predicting Trump’s loss due to the economy. I publicly predicted in 2019 (in my YouTube video) BOTH the market correction and Trump’s reelection and even stated odds of him winning again would be higher if the market were at lows (without making a final high first) around election time. The path predicted in that video appears to be unfolding, almost as predicted. Nearly all election models were incorrect in predicting the 2016 outcome. Even I got that wrong, since I knew the market was going up no matter who won and thought Hillary was going to win since every anal-yst predicted a crash if Trump won.
In other words, if this is a political battle to hold the economy down with hopes Trump will lose in November, odds are, we get the exact opposite effect. There is a place in hell for those who hoped (and helped manifest) this outcome and continue to hope and pray for “another wave of disaster” delaying recovery for the sole means of having a political candidate you hate remain in office. Really, does Trump’s opponent seem like he will do anything great for the country or the world, or is this like every other election — being forced to pick (who you perceive as) the lesser of two evils. Do the elections even matter? Perhaps this (including the staged coverup) is all part of a plan both sides are “in on”. It almost has to be. Otherwise, I’d suspect the democrats would run a much more viable candidate. I didn’t hear anyone routing for Joe when Liz and Bernie were still in the race, so something is obviously amiss here. Seems as though Americans wanted someone else but are willing to settle for less (or whatever is forced down their throats). With over 300 million people to choose from, surely we could have been presented with more qualified candidates, perhaps on both sides.
Nailing timing and direction in the market is not so tough, but knowing what events cause these moves are a guess. For all I know, we could have a natural disaster strike. Those have had little effect on market trends in the past, but if a downtrend has already started, one could accelerate it. The astrology does indicate an uptick in Earthquakes (especially starting in unusual locations) and natural disasters from now until the end of the year.
You never know why things are going to play out the way they do. And although I foresaw a correction early in the year, what I did not foresee was the incredible fallout and likely irreparable damage to the average person, trying to earn a living. Once again, we are going to have a big disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.
The “less” your income is dependent on someone (or something) else, especially government, the better off you are and will be.
Since markets can be traded both ways, trading remains my number two source of income and second highest recommendation. Number one is something I’m mostly silent about – Network Marketing (aka MLM). It has proved a viable source of income (through ups and downs) for over thirty years (for me personally) and best of all, residual checks flow in, month after month, after you have done the work once.
Granted, both of these are simple, but not easy and won’t be for everyone, but they do work well.